Australia's healthcare landscape is currently undergoing a significant transformation, with one of the most pressing concerns being the critical shortage of General Practitioners (GPs) across the nation. The state of general practice in Australia has become a topic of debate and scrutiny in recent times, raising serious concerns about the future of primary healthcare.

This issue begins with the equilibrium that existed in 2021, but it takes a concerning turn as the demand for GP services in Australia is projected to outstrip the available supply, leading to a continuously widening deficit of Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) General Practitioners (GPs) starting from 2022.

To comprehend the gravity of the situation, let's delve into some key insights from recent discussions on why Australia is grappling with a GP shortage.

Rising Demand for GP Services: Between 2009 and 2019, there was an annual increase in demand for GP services by 4.7 percent, resulting in a total growth of 58 percent over the decade. This increase in demand is equivalent to requiring an additional workload equivalent to 10,200 full-time GPs.

Inadequate Workforce Growth: During the same period (2016-2021), the GP workforce only expanded by an equivalent of 4,200 full-time GPs. This indicates that GPs have been working tirelessly under immense pressure to meet the escalating demand for their services. The strain on the existing GP workforce is reaching a breaking point.

Growth Projections: The demand for GP services is poised to continue its upward trajectory, and even with considerations for future workforce expansion, a significant shortfall of over 10,600 full-time GPs is projected by 2031-32 if proactive strategies are not implemented to attract and retain GP professionals.

This GP shortage crisis in Australia underscores the urgent need for comprehensive planning and intervention to ensure that the country's primary healthcare system remains robust and accessible to all citizens. Without timely and effective measures, the healthcare gap will only widen, impacting the well-being of the Australian population and the overall healthcare infrastructure. Addressing this issue demands collaborative efforts from policymakers, healthcare institutions, and medical professionals to secure a healthier and more sustainable future for Australia's healthcare system.

The Diminished Appeal of General Practice

In recent times, there has been a concerning shift in the perception of general practice among medical students in Australia. While general practice has long been regarded as the cornerstone of primary care and a vital component of the healthcare system, it is now facing a decline in popularity as a career choice among medical graduates. This shift in perception raises important questions about the future of general practice in Australia and the factors contributing to this decline.

General practice has historically been an attractive career path for medical graduates due to its essential role in providing comprehensive and continuous healthcare to patients of all ages. However, recent reports and surveys indicate that this appeal has waned significantly. One of the key reasons for this decline in interest among medical students is the increasing allure of specialization within the medical field.

Medical students today are presented with a wide array of specialization options, each offering the promise of becoming an expert in a specific area of medicine. Specializations such as cardiology, neurology, and surgery often garner more attention and prestige compared to general practice. The prospect of becoming a specialist in a high-income, high-status field can be alluring, leading many medical students to overlook the value and rewards of a career in general practice.

Another significant factor contributing to the diminishing appeal of general practice is the concern about workloads and the demands placed on general practitioners (GPs). The role of a GP has evolved over the years, becoming increasingly complex and demanding. GPs are expected to manage a broad spectrum of medical conditions, provide preventive care, and coordinate patient referrals to specialists when necessary. This comprehensive approach to healthcare can lead to long working hours and high levels of responsibility, which can deter medical graduates seeking a more balanced lifestyle.

Financial considerations also play a role in the changing perception of general practice. While general practice offers a stable income, it may not match the earning potential of some specialized fields, particularly those with procedural or surgical components. The significant investments of time and resources required to become a GP, including the years of medical school and subsequent training, can sometimes be seen as less financially rewarding compared to other medical careers.

Furthermore, the rising costs of establishing and running a general practice clinic, coupled with the challenges of navigating the complexities of healthcare reimbursement systems, can deter medical graduates from pursuing this career path.

In addition to these factors, there is a need to address the current shortage of general practitioners in Australia. The aging population, coupled with the increasing demand for healthcare services, has placed additional pressure on the existing GP workforce. This shortage has resulted in heavier workloads and longer working hours for practicing GPs, further dissuading medical students from choosing general practice as a career.

To address these challenges and reverse the declining interest in general practice, there is a pressing need for comprehensive strategies. These strategies should include raising awareness about the value of general practice as a rewarding and impactful career choice, implementing measures to reduce GP workloads and improve work-life balance, and providing financial incentives and support to aspiring GPs.

The diminished appeal of general practice among medical students in Australia is a complex issue driven by factors such as the allure of specialization, concerns about workloads, and financial considerations. To ensure the continued availability of high-quality primary care, it is imperative to address these challenges and promote general practice as a vital and attractive career path for future medical graduates.

A Workforce in Crisis

The shortage of GPs is not only a matter of perception but also a stark reality. Rural and remote areas often face severe GP shortages, resulting in reduced access to healthcare services for residents in those regions. The strain on existing GP workforces, coupled with recruitment challenges, adds to the complexity of the issue.

In terms of per capita figures, the average Australian citizen in 2021 required 2.1 hours of GP care annually. This demand is forecasted to escalate to 2.5 hours annually by 2032. However, the supply of GP clinical hours per person is estimated to decline to 1.8 hours per annum by 2032 from 2.2 hours in 2021. This translates into an average annual deficit of 40.9 minutes of GP care per individual by 2032.

Several factors contributed to the sluggish growth in supply relative to demand during this period. Demographic shifts in the GP workforce, aiming for gender balance, show the female share of the workforce increasing from 40.9% in 2021 to a projected 46.4% by 2032. Research indicates that female GPs are more inclined to work part-time, further diminishing the supply of clinical hours in comparison to their male counterparts. The model also accounts for female GPs taking maternity leave, which has an additional impact on clinical hours.

An Aging Population

Another key factor limiting the growth of the GP workforce is the substantial number of workforce departures, primarily due to retirements and mortality within an aging workforce. These departures are expected to exceed the supply of new registrars and overseas entrants into the workforce. The aging Australian population is mirrored in the GP workforce, with GPs aged 65 and over peaking at 4,734 in 2021 and then declining to 2,691 by 2032. In 2021, 15.4% of the GP workforce was aged over 65, projected to decrease to 9.1% by 2032 as retirees are replaced by younger clinicians.

Furthermore, the RACGP's Health of the Nation report noted that older GPs tend to work longer hours compared to their younger counterparts. As older GPs retire and are succeeded by younger counterparts over the next decade, this transition is expected to contribute to a reduction in the average hours supplied per GP.